The news is abuzz with the latest polls. A word of advice from Samuel Clemens (aka Mark Twain) is appropriate. He told us, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
At best, polls are lumped into statistics, although I believe they are somewhere between “Pipe dream” (as in, “Wow man, I can see it too! Far out!) and “Hallucination.”
Today the polls are not reporting the national standing of the candidates , but instead they are reporting on the first two states that will sorta, kinda have the first sorta, kinda primaries. Let’s put this into perspective.
Iowa has a caucus (February 3, 2020), which is different than a primary. It’s more like a block party than a political event.
New Hampshire, has the first actual primary (February 11, 2020).
The spotlight is tightly focused on these powerhouse states.
Just to put things into perspective–there are 538 votes in the electoral college.
Iowa’s power block? Six.
New Hampshire’s share? Four.
Between these two key states, together they represent not-quite two percent of the votes that actually are counted in a presidential election.
However, focusing on those two states definitely helps to sell television advertisements.